Conviction

Example entry · fictional instrument · read-only — this is what a finished record looks like

stock · long · closed

EXMPL · Example Robotics

conviction 7/10 · felt excited · in @ 42.00 · out @ 38.50 · process score 78/100

Example Robotics (EXMPL) is mispriced because the market is valuing it as an industrial, not a software business. Recurring software revenue crossed 40% last quarter and gross margin is inflecting. If the Q2 report shows software above 45% of revenue, the multiple re-rates.

expects 55–70 by 2026-09-30

Would prove this wrong

  • Software revenue share falls or stalls below 40% in Q2 (metric)
  • Price at or below 38 · price ≤ 38, checked daily BREACHED 2026-06-20

Post-mortem

The software-share claim was right, but the re-rate never came and my falsifier fired. I was right about the business and wrong about the timing — and I'd pre-committed to what wrong looks like, so I'm out at −8.3% instead of narrating my way to −30%.

luck ↔ skill: −1 (−2 pure luck … +2 pure skill)

Lesson: A correct claim with no catalyst date is a hope, not a thesis — every claim gets a “by when” next time.

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